Tuesday October 22 2019
You may have noticed the wind increase as the fog and drizzle dispersed mid day. This is just a lull before the showers and bands of moderate rain on the way. A cold front will be swinging through this evening and along with it, more rain will develop and make the ground soggy. There may also be some rumbles of thunder during the commute home or for after school sports. This normally would not be a big deal, but worth mentioning in late October.
Tuesday Surface Weather
Mesoscale Analysis at 1 PM
Surface Low Pressure is trying to form in North Carolina and ride along the front. This is what will try to enhance the rain and boost the chance of thunder as it arrives. This times out in central and southern Maryland between 4 PM to 6 PM.
This radar view at 1 PM is a base level mark to compare to the short range high resolution HRRR Model simulation below. It does appear to be pretty close, so it is deemed reliable for the afternoon.
Radar Simualtion —> slider
The first image was generated earlier, so it appears the model is on track with the system today. As always, there is about a 1 hour cushion to consider as this moves through today. Please consider that buffer with each time plot.
3 PM: Rain bands encroach on the western suburbs.
4 PM to 7 PM : The best chance for thunder as the storm line gets more defined. It will be within 1 hour of 6 PM that this passes metro Baltimore and most of central Maryland. There will be another 2 hours until it passes beyond the Eastern Shore.
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Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor
Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
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Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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