Sunday November 3 2019

Welcome back to Standard Time. Sunset will be at 5:30 PM today. With your free time, try to remember to check all of your clocks, including in your car. That’s one that gets a lot of people on Monday morning. You may balance your extra hour of sleep by staying up late for the Ravens game tonight in Baltimore. It will be chilly and there will be a hint of winter in the air. We’ve had our first freeze and now computer models are trying to show the first snow.

I am a snow lover, but I will NOT hype it. I am skeptical of going range forecasting on models… especially with the first event. But I will discuss it below.

Morning Weather

There has been snow in the Lake Effect variety as close as south Buffalo, NY.


Weather Set Up


  • Today: Sunny and chilly near 50ºF in urban areas, 40s inland.
  • Tonight Ravens Game in Baltimore: Tailgate Mid 40s, 4th Quarter Near 40ºF
  • Warming A Little To Lower 60s on Tuesday
  • Snow? There is a hint for snow to ‘mix in’ with end of week system Friday

It is OK To Wear A Snowflake and Dream Of Snow Now

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Local Weather Stats:

Sunday November 3, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  61ºF

Record High: 80ºF in 2003

Average  Low: 40ºF

Record Low:  25ºF in 1951

Sunrise: 6:36 AM

Sunset 5:03 PM  

*Daylight = 2:14 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 60ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House


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Sunday Afternoon Temperatures 

Ravens Game Temperatures

  • Tailgating After 4 PM: Upper 40s
  • 1st Quarter: 46ºF
  • 4th Quarter: 41ºF


Monday Morning

Monday Afternoon 


Looking Ahead

Jet Stream Animation shows persistence cold surges into the eastern US. The first half of November will be below average (colder than normal). This animation shows the trend through November 16.



NOAA Temperature Outlook 

We have a greater than 60% change to remain mostly below average temperatures through the end of next week


Will this produce snow? Is it OK to have Faith in the Flakes?

I want to caution you that many online weather pages will be filled with talks of snow. They also were two weeks before Halloween, and I did not touch that. They were tricked, and I don’t want you to be.

But in November, it is more likely that cold air can produce early snow for us. The mention of flakes falling but not always mean stickage.

The event on Friday this week ahead does not have agreement. The European (ECMWF) Model has it on Friday morning. The GFS Model has it in the evening and farther south.

I have pointed out the model error for weeks. Expecting storms to trend north of initial guidance and a little earlier.  So I will show the outlook and track it all week for you.  I’d love to see something, but don’t expect too much. But if I was to bet on this, I would lean towards the ECMWF version. FITF



Temperature Outlook

This guidance shows Baltimore in the mid 40s Friday and Saturday. Keep in mind as we enter winter weather, it can be warmer for the high temperature before or after the time when snow can fall. Also, the ground needs to be cold enough to support stickage before we have a problem worth elaborating on.



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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures


Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.


Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Other  Links:



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