Wednesday November 6 2019
This morning is mild and we should remain seasonal through tomorrow when rain will arrive. Then the pattern turns sharply colder and many computer models are throwing snowflakes around nearby. As much as I love snow, I want to caution you about headlines you might read and maps you might see. Computer models are guidance and not gospel. Twice already the long range forecast showed snow in metro Baltimore (the week before Halloween and a week before this Friday). I have highlighted the bias for storms to verify earlier and north, so I did not push the early calls.
But as we get deeper into the season, the first flakes become more likely. So it’s time to address two chance for at least some flakes mixing in over the next week. This morning, we are on the mild side, but the map does show the cold on the way. It’s important to also consider the ground is warm and needs a lot of cooling down before it can support stickage.
- Mild today and Thursday
- Thursday rain in western/northern hills after noon. Reaches metro areas at night.
- Snow in Western Maryland Thursday Night, Flurries may mix in York Co PA and northern Maryland.
- Weekend: Dry
- Monday Evening: Possible Rain/Snow Mix into central Maryland.
Local Weather Stats:
Wednesday November 6, 2019 in Baltimore
Average High: 60ºF
Record High: 80ºF in 2015
Average Low: 39ºF
Record Low: 22ºF in 1991
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset 5:00 PM
*Daylight = 2:10 shorter than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 58ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
NEW FITF GEAR THIS YEAR
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) who wanted to bring these hats to life. *Mustard is her favorite color
- The Maryland Hoodie is high quality and a new way to show off our love of Snow and State.
- The T-shirt… Something you may find familiar. Why just a T? Because many schools I visit have the heat on high for faculty and staff. But you can put a long sleeve underneath for cool look. I will have wifey model these soon 🙂
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Radar Simulation —> slider
TURNING COLDER Friday
Flurries might fall at night to the north, and could reach central Maryland Friday morning with the colder winds
Skipping Past The (Dry) Weekend
The European Model is showing a strong cold front with rain mixing to snow showers into central Maryland. This is NOT the type of set up to cause a problem on roads, but could lay a coating on the grass.
The GFS Model (less likely) is showing a storm developing on the coast. The timing shows Monday night and mainly Tuesday. This would try to bring some more stickage, but would need to chill the ground a lot first. Also, this model has been less reliable beyond 4 days. I do not believe this will play out, but I am showing it just in case I am wrong and we can reference back with model comparisons.
It will feel like winter next week
Winter Outlook Posts
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer
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