Sunday Afternoon December 15 2019

This report is being written at 2 PM Sunday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for souther PA Monday. This is for 1-3 inches of snow and additional ice. I expect that there will be some more advisories issued by The National Weather Service at any time for the wintry weather on Monday.  Here are my quick thoughts and latest modeling.

It does look like snow will cross our region between 3 AM and 6 AM Monday. Temperatures will be below freezing west of the cities with impact on the roads. Metro areas have a 50% chance of roads either remaining wet or covering over… especially on elevated bridges and overpasses.

There will be a transition to sleet and freezing rain. The cold should hold inland and could lead to a modest ice event lasting into Monday night.  Here’s how I think it will play out.  For the record, I do not make the calls on schools. But based on the expected conditions, there is good reason to pay close attention for potential delays or more if you live in the Blue or Pink shaded zones.

The zones in Blue and Pink are most likely to have some road problems with snow and then icing into Monday night.

See the model comparison and latest simulation timeline below.


HRRR Model 6 AM Snapshot



Road temperatures are the wild card. It is possible within a few miles of the freezing line to have colder temps but warmer and wet roads. It’s also possible to have warmer temps and the snow can fall faster than melting to lead to some stickage.


NAM 3 Km Model

Radar Simulation Timeline—> slider

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Tracking The Freezing Line
This is why there may be some impact in the morning for closer western suburbs and some urban spots.  But the northern and western suburbs may stay icy all day. Then more freezing rain will be an issue after 4 PM north of Baltimore to include Carroll, parts of Frederick, Harford, Counties and southern PA!
Monday Morning

Monday Afternoon
There will be warmer air pulling up the valleys between the ridges to our west.  Where the freezing line sets up between 1 PM and 4 PM, it may hold through midnight. This is why icing could be an extend problem in western Howard, northern Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, Harford, Cecil Counties in Maryland plus most of southern PA!


I will check back in this evening and see if we have any advisories issued by then to expand on.




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Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020





Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones


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