Friday January 17 2020
The Winter Weather Advisory issued for Saturday by the National Weather Service just makes the forecast more official. It has been advertised all week and Saturday will be a mess. The warmer Chesapeake water will limit the impact along the Bay, but west and north of I-95 plan for a thump of snow in the morning, then an icy mix in the afternoon.
Since temperatures will start the day in the 20s across the region, there will be some snow and stickage to consider in the morning between Washington, Annapolis, and parts of Maryland’s Eastern Shore. The shaded counties will get more snow and likely continue to get an icy mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the afternoon.
Winter Weather Advisory
Most areas for 7 AM to 7 PM
Compare The Forecasts
First let’s look at the snow potential from the National Weather Service. Then compare to my forecast I already issued and the NAM 3 Km computer model
Maryland, Virginia, and parts of West Virginia
- 1 to 2 inches of snow for the areas in the Winter Weather Advisory.
- 2 to 3 inches The ‘thump’ of snow I’ve been discussing will be an enhanced push of moderate snow for the first 1 to 3 hours. This is highlighted in Carroll, northern Baltimore, and northern Harford Counties.
2 to 3 inches in the southern counties that border with Maryland. Heavier snow will fall farther north where it will stay colder for longer.
My Original Forecast
My Call For Snowfall (and ice)
- The timing is critical! Earlier arrival means more impact for all.
- Plan for the start between 7 AM and 10 AM
- Snow Burst or ‘Thumping’: Arrival of snow can come with a push of moderate intensity.
- The warmer Chesapeake Bay will play a role in stickage, but the initial push should coat the roads and impact travel during the morning.
- The transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain in metro areas will be between 11 AM and 2 PM. Then rain to follow before evening.
- More Snow North! The colder air will last longer (blue shading). This region will also stay frozen with ice into Saturday evening.
- Western Maryland/Wisp: They will get ice Saturday afternoon, then more snow returns Sunday.
Get Forecasts By Email
Just in case you don’t get all posts on your social media feed, stay up to date with the latest info…
Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Be the first to hear any new weather
NAM 3 Km High Resolution Forecast
(this is repeated from my prior report)
Temperatures – Most of the area will be deep in the 20s
Snow Arrival Simulation –> slider
Morning To Noon
This band to thump of snow is with the mid level warm front. It can drop a quick coating to 1″+ of snow in the two to three hours it takes to pass by. When it stops, the warmer are at cloud level moves in… That is important with the second batch of ‘stuff’ in the afternoon.
Afternoon Icy Mix and Freezing Rain —> slider
At this time, the temps at cloud level will be warmer, but the surface temps will remain below freezing inland from the Bay, cities, and I-95
- northern Baltimore County
- Carroll County
- western Howard/Montgomery Counties
- Frederick and Washington County
- Southern Pennsylvania
Notice the freezing line remaining in place in those colder areas, even after the precipitation stops.
NAM Model Forecast:
Snowfall (this is lower in some areas that my forecast (see below). A lot depends on the thump of snow in the morning and if there is any snow for part of the afternoon push.
New Improved FITF Soft Fuzzy Beanies Just Arrived
Click To Get Yours Now
Freezing Rain Forecast
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Winter Outlook Series:
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer
All proceeds will go to the Maryland Trek 6 total and Just In Power Kids programs
Thank you to our Title Sponsor for Maryland Trek 6
Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.
Just In Power Kids:
Proceeds go to our programs Providing FREE holistic care for kids in cancer treatment and up to 5 years post treatment and caregivers.
Proceeds from all sales go to Just In Power Kids. Click the image to shop and show your support.