Tuesday January 21 2020
We are are the bottom of the curve with this cold snap. It is chilly this morning and temperatures will remain cold for the next two days. Then we modify towards the end of the weekend.
The thing is, there will be another storm on another Saturday. At this point, there modeling does not show cold air in place, except at higher elevations. This could be a heavy snow event for the mountains including western Maryland.
I do NOT want to give false hope to winter lovers, but I am not convinced the event will be all rain for us. In fact as I mentioned in my winter outlook, I believe some of our events will end up a surprise since mid range computer modeling has been poor. This is a set up it may have trouble handling. See what I mean below.
Many areas start in the teens to mid 20s. Any breeze will know the wind chill down 5º to 10º colder.
Tuesday January 21, 2020 in Baltimore
Average High: 41ºF
Record High: 66ºF in 1921
Average Low: 24ºF
Record Low: -6ºF in 1985
*Record Snow 5.1″ in 2014
Sunrise: 7:21 AM
Sunset 5:13 PM
*Daylight = 1:41 longer than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 40ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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Looking Ahead To Saturday
The jet stream relaxes quite a bit over the continental US, with the exception of this little nugget of cold air aloft swinging through.
Surface Storm Saturday Morning
Under normal conditions, this would be a prime storm track to bring Central Maryland snow! But with marginal temperatures, the confidence is for a very heavy snow event in the mountains. Elevation will play a role in where the cold air will allow this to remain snow. But that cold air aloft makes me think there may be more snow than indicated here.
This could be a wet snow with surface temperatures likely above freezing. If so, then timing plays a role again. Here is the sunrise surface set up. If we get the bulk of this storm to arrive before sunrise, and we get snow while above freezing, we can still get stickage.
It’s not a promise, but something worth considering. The past two events ended up colder than projected this far ahead of time. I am all about patterns, trends, and atmospheric memory. Stay tuned…
The forecast high temperatures for this weekend contradict the cold air aloft. Again, I have to question the modeling, so please take this forecast with a grain of salt.
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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Winter Outlook Series:
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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