Thursday February 20 2020
The weather map this morning looks like I expected to see often the winter. We have colder air in place and a developing winter storm. But this will be tracking to our south. The bulk of the snow is expected to hit eastern North Carolina hardest.
Morning Water Vapor Satellite
The flow of moisture and high clouds will spread or way today. I will watch this closely for any northern shift aloft.
Morning Surface Weather
Before fellow snow lovers get upset or travelers get concerned, we must consider that areas has warmer ground and temperatures will be hovering near or above freeing. The full potential of snowfall will not be realized, but the timing overnight will allow for some impact on the roads.
Below is a special look with a focus on that storm. I still have to consider the modeling error and a bump north. But the most I can see are flurries into Central Maryland this evening and perhaps a trace of snow in Southern Maryland tonight.
Thursday February 20, 2020 in Baltimore
Average High: 46ºF
Record High: 76ºF in 2018
Average Low: 27ºF
Record Low: 1ºF in 12015
*Record Snow 9.9″ in 1947
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset 5:48 PM
*Daylight = 2:26 longer than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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Snow Storm Animation
See model comparison snow snapshots below
Model Comparison Snow Snapshots
The modeling shows the northern edge of snow breezy into southern Maryland. I have noticed an error I pointed out earlier this week where the verification was north by 100 miles. Fro that reason, I’ve included the chance for flurries possibly reaching central Maryland. No stickage expected there.
7 PM Thu: NAM 3Km
7 PM Thu: European ECWMF
7 PM Thu: Canadian GEM
This Must Be Considered for stickage, melting, and freezing overnight.
Mid Afternoon temperatures mainly in the mid 30s
Midnight temperatures near freezing. This is when moderate snow can stick, where the bulk will be in eastern North Carolina and SE VA.
Friday Morning will be below freezing in the snow zone. The warm ground will battle the colder air and see icing is possible. Intestates should be treated enough for limited impact.
Friday Afternoon mode of the region will be in the mid to upper 30s. If there are any road problems, they will thaw in the daylight.
Since I showed the NAM 3 Km Model, I wanted to start with that snow projection.
This is likely OVERDONE and does not account for melting on the warmer ground.
Most Likely Snow Potential
I will post that later today. But if you missed my report last night, here is a look at the Baltimore history of snowless February(s) and winters when March brought the most snow:
Click here to see more: March Snow After Winter Has Been Slow
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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Winter Outlook Series:
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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