Wednesday Evening February 26

A strong system is moving through tonight. At first glance, it’s easy to see we remain on the warm side, while there is now to the west. This contrast of air masses is one force to make a line of storms strong. That is what we expect to pass through the region tonight. But there has already been lightning with the main cold front and there is a slight chance for storms to turn severe.

What follows will be colder air along with 40 to 50 mph winds Thursday. Western Maryland gets in on the snow and may receive up to 6 inches by Friday.  The NAM 3 Km brings back the chance for snow showers into Central Maryland Friday night. I’ll show that below.

Wednesday Evening Weather


Severe Storm Potential

The area of Low Pressure that formed along the cold front was something the Storm Prediction Center was suggesting earlier today. The spin aloft is what can help increase the energy with the storm, even after dark and in cool temps.

  • Highlighted area includes Maryland, Virginia, and WV just west of Baltimore and Washington.
  • Timing is now through midnight.
  • Threat: Damaging wind gusts 50 to 60+ mph


Evening Doppler Radar

At 7 PM this Doppler Radar snapshot  shows the lightning strikes along the mountains. This is a signal of the energy in the storm line. The limit of this single radar site is why you can’t see all of the rain. I’ve added a regional loop below.

The cells are moving north, but the line is heading east…. See the timeline below.


Regional Radar Loop

(winter mode/snow is not identified here)


Severe Storm Parameters

K Index over 30 is a signal for thunderstorms. So rumbling may echo in metro areas between 11 PM and 1 AM as this opuses through.

Wind Gusts

This is a model simulation and does not account for the potential with individual cells.

The criteria for a storm to be considered severe is winds over 58 mph. This may be close.


Radar Simulation —> slider

Storm line timing in metro Baltimore will be within an hour of midnight (11 PM to 1 AM)

Snow will quickly follow in far Western Maryland. Some snow might mix in the western and northern suburbs after 2 PM. No stickage.

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Western Maryland Snow
Deep Creek Lake will be in moderate to heavy snow tonight and snow showers will continue through Friday.  The modeling brings between 3 and 6 inches of snow to Wisp. Over 6 inches possible at Canaan Valley and Snowshoe.
Thursday Winds
Wind Advisory
For now, the Advisory is for Southern PA and the mountains. I expect there is a good chance NWS will expand this into Maryland based on the forecast winds.
More Snow?
An upper level disturbance may have been lost on other models, but the Nam 3 Km has picked up on it for Friday evening. Should this verify, it may bring snow showers into central Maryland. Too early to say of it could reach Baltimore or Washington and prevent a snowless February. But it does give hope.


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Baltimore history of snowless February(s) and winters when March brought the most snow:

Click here to see more: March Snow After Winter Has Been Slow


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  • Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
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FITF Store: Weather Wife


Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020





Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures





Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones


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