Wednesday Evening February 26
A strong system is moving through tonight. At first glance, it’s easy to see we remain on the warm side, while there is now to the west. This contrast of air masses is one force to make a line of storms strong. That is what we expect to pass through the region tonight. But there has already been lightning with the main cold front and there is a slight chance for storms to turn severe.
What follows will be colder air along with 40 to 50 mph winds Thursday. Western Maryland gets in on the snow and may receive up to 6 inches by Friday. The NAM 3 Km brings back the chance for snow showers into Central Maryland Friday night. I’ll show that below.
Wednesday Evening Weather
Severe Storm Potential
The area of Low Pressure that formed along the cold front was something the Storm Prediction Center was suggesting earlier today. The spin aloft is what can help increase the energy with the storm, even after dark and in cool temps.
- Highlighted area includes Maryland, Virginia, and WV just west of Baltimore and Washington.
- Timing is now through midnight.
- Threat: Damaging wind gusts 50 to 60+ mph
Evening Doppler Radar
At 7 PM this Doppler Radar snapshot shows the lightning strikes along the mountains. This is a signal of the energy in the storm line. The limit of this single radar site is why you can’t see all of the rain. I’ve added a regional loop below.
The cells are moving north, but the line is heading east…. See the timeline below.
Regional Radar Loop
(winter mode/snow is not identified here)
Severe Storm Parameters
K Index over 30 is a signal for thunderstorms. So rumbling may echo in metro areas between 11 PM and 1 AM as this opuses through.
This is a model simulation and does not account for the potential with individual cells.
The criteria for a storm to be considered severe is winds over 58 mph. This may be close.
Radar Simulation —> slider
Storm line timing in metro Baltimore will be within an hour of midnight (11 PM to 1 AM)
Snow will quickly follow in far Western Maryland. Some snow might mix in the western and northern suburbs after 2 PM. No stickage.
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Baltimore history of snowless February(s) and winters when March brought the most snow:
Click here to see more: March Snow After Winter Has Been Slow
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WEATHER WIFE COLLECTION
- Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
- The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
- The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’
Winter Outlook Series:
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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