Tuesday March 3 2020

Updated at 6:30 PM

A strong cold front is holding energy past sunset to produce some circulating storm cells as they enter our area. The forward speed is 60 mph, so the winds at the surface can be damaging. The worst is passing northern WV and VA into Central Maryland this evening. There will be a large area with a downpour and some lightning, but the risk for hail is small.

At first glance, this complex looks more impressive than the short range modeling, but I included two model simulations below anyway… at least to compare the timing.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

At 6:15 this was near Berryville and Charlestown. It is moving to the Northeast at 60 mph. That speed itself can carry the momentum for damaging winds.

At 6:35 PM the worst was in Frederick Co between Middletown and Ballenger Creek and New Market.

This warning runs from 6:20 PM to 6:45 PM (so it may be expired and a new one issued east when you read this)

Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia…
Eastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia…
Central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia…
Southern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia…


Wider View Radar

This storm structure covers a brand area. But the worst will hit southern Frederick County, northwestern Montgomery County, and western Howard into Carroll Counties. Mount Air to Westminster should get this by 7 PM. The north side of this line will bring heavy rain into York Couty PA at the same time.

Then the worst part will likely track on the north side of Baltimore between 7:30 and 9 PM. But metro areas should get in on some brief heavy rain and gusty winds.

Radar Loop


Short Range Model Simulations

These appear to be less intense than this shows on Doppler Radar, so please consider just the timing for these

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Baltimore history of snowless February(s) and winters when March brought the most snow:

Click here to see more: March Snow After Winter Has Been Slow


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Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020





Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures





Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

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