Monday April 13
A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of our region until 6 PM. This means conditions support severe storms to rotate and possibly produce tornados. But there is more I’ll share below.
Tornado Watch Until 6 PM
As mentioned in my morning report, the most likely time for severe storms will be up to 4 PM, and often ‘Watches’ like this get cancelled early from west to east as the storm threat moves.
- Watch: It MIGHT Happen. Watching for potential with developing weather
- Warning: IT IS HAPPENING NOW! Track it as it moves in a defined.
Severe Storm Risk (warnings may be issued for any of these)
- Large Hail over 1 inch diameter
- Wind Gusts 50 to 70 mph
- Flash Flooding. With heavy downpours we’ve already had over 3 inches of rain in some areas this morning.
Storm Prediction Center Discussion
The risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two will seemingly increase as storms develop through midday into the early afternoon.
The intense wind profile and more than adequate instability will favor the development of strong to severe thunderstorms over the next couple of hours as storms develop/move east from eastern WV/VA into northern VA/MD/southeast PA. Damaging gusts will probably accompany the stronger cores and a tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercell structure or mature bowing segment.
The formation of bands or lines of storms keep the flow over the same area, like train cars on a track. This increased the flooding potential and risk for long track wind damage or tornados.
Bowing is when the line of storms appears to curve or move faster ahead in segments. This is where the faster winds have increased the chance for more severe limits of wind, hail, flooding, and tornados.
A Tornado Warning was issued for Baltimore City just after this image was generated. There will be more to track.
Tracking Severe Storms In Warnings And Looking Where They Go Next
Regional Radar Loop
9 AM to 12 PM
Water Satellite Loop
9 PM to 12 PM
Water-vapor imagery indicates a compact mid-level shortwave trough over the upper OH Valley, and this feature is forecast to move into the central Appalachians by early afternoon.
The strong upper level winds are rotating with height. This is the SHEER that can lead to twisting and tornado formation.
Severe Storm Risk
Click on images here to see the morning wind timeline and full forecast
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