Tuesday April 28

The sun was out this morning as I made this forecast. It has been a rare thing lately, and I would rather focus on that. But a warm front will bring in showers today. On Wednesday the winds will increase in the afternoon, bringing more rain by evening.

Then on Thursday, a slow moving storm will bring a line of heavy rain through our region all day. This has prompted a rare Excessive Rainfall Outlook a few days ahead of time:

Excessive Rain Outlook

The risk increased for the central and eastern part of our region. I wrote that a Flood Watch ‘may be issued’, but I think it’s likely.


Storm Set Up: Rain Animation

See the daily timeline sliders below


Let’s back up and start with the weather today:

Morning Temperatures 



Rain Timeline Tuesday —> slider

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Weather Collection Lab:
Winds will increase to 10 – 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
High temps may reach 70 degrees, but the wind may take some of the warmth away.
Rain Arrives Late Afternoon/Evening



The rain arrival does vary by model. The NAM shows it in the morning, while the ECWMF is slower, and moving in later.  Either way, it will take it’s time and be a soaker.


Thursday Rain Timeline —> slider

ECMWF Model (slower arrival)

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Rainfall Total
Models often overplay the rain totals, but since this is a slow moving systems we can expect there may very well be flooding potential on Thursday.
Temperature Outlook
Strong winds Wednesday will be the reason for that warm up. Much better weather expected this weekend.


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Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland

Other  Links:

When is the typical last freeze or frost?

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Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

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