Wednesday May 6 2020
Happy Nurse’s Appreciation Day! Today will be a raw day by May standards with temperatures more than 20 degrees below normal and rain. The morning temperature has stayed at 50ºF at Baltimore’s BWI. If the remains as forecast, it would tie the record coldest high temperature for this date set in 1958. The snow in the Pennsylvania mountains will spread south to the Maryland and West Virginia mountains this afternoon. More on the way Friday.
Morning Radar Snapshot
Temperatures At 8 AM
The highest terrain will remain in the 30s all day.
- Today: Chilly Rain, Mountains change to snow.
- Thursday: Sunny. Inland morning frost, afternoon mild.
- Friday: Rain returns, snow with accumulation in the mountains. Snow may mix at night in nearby suburbs.
- Saturday: Rain and snow showers.
- Sunday: Morning frost and near record low. Afternoon mild.
The cold air is producing snow in the Pennsylvania mountains this morning. As this Low Pressure strengthens and moves east, it will spread more rain this afternoon and expand that snow to the mountains of western Maryland. As hard as that may be to accept, more snow with accumulation there is likely on Friday. Some snow may reach our colder suburbs Friday night and Saturday. I have bit my tongue on the snow mentions, but more models support seeing the flakes locally.
Then the coldest air will bring widespread frost Mother’s Day morning. Both weekend mornings could challenge record low temperatures.
Rain Timeline Today —> slider
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Frost is possible in the inland suburbs where temps will drop into the 30s. Urban and Bay areas will remain in the lower 40s.
Rain develops during the afternoon, heavier by evening and at night. But it should be cold enough for mostly snow in the mountains. A few inches of accumulation are likely. I will have more on that in my next report.
ECMWF Model is most reasonable.
The NAM Model Package is more aggressive with the cold air and snow. This can tend to overdo extreme weather forecasts, but it is worth mention because, WOW!
NAM 3 Km (high resolution) Afternoon
This shows the rain spreading from the west during the afternoon. But the snow in Pittsburgh and to the north.
NAM 12 Km (lower resolution)
This shows snow reaching much closer to the northern suburbs of Baltimore and Washington. There is a snow accumulation forecast with this model that I doubt. But I will share that in my afternoon report.
NAM 12 Km Model Animation
This is the most aggressive with snow. While it shows the rain to snow Friday night and Saturday morning, the resolution is likely missing the developing showers Saturday afternoon with the chilly air from the Great Lakes. We could have rain showers mixed with snow flakes Saturday afternoon. It is possible to get snow to the ground when surface temps are in the mid 40s.
Note that this product is a ‘blend’ of models. Today’s temps are likely to remain colder, and we could see lower numbers on Saturday.
Frost possible for many areas Saturday and Sunday morning. This may depend on the wind settling down.
Baltimore Record Lows in jeopardy:
- Saturday May 9: 36ºF 2017
- Sunday May 10: 33ºF in 1983
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When is the typical last freeze or frost?
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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