Wednesday May 13
It really may seem like we are jumping seasons when you read this weather report. We just had snow showers over the weekend and ending what may be our last local Frost Advisory this morning. Temps will be warming a little today, then jumping to the 80s on Friday. But off of the southeast US coast there is a high chance for a tropical-like system to form. The impact we need to track would be high waves for the coast and a cooling wind off the ocean next week.
Today: Sunny and back to the 60s
Friday: Warming to the 80s. T’showers overnight.
Saturday and Sunday: Scattered showers. Not a washout.
There was some light frost. But at 7 AM, many areas were already recovering back into the 40s.
Weather Collection Lab
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Normal Low in Baltimore is 51ºF, so we will be close to where we should be.
Normal High in Baltimore is 73ºF, so we are still below.
Friday’s Warm Up
- Mid 80s across the I-95 corridor!
- I think the northern suburbs may still reach 80ºF despite the model display here.
- Interior Delmarva will be near 80ºF as well.
- Note: The cooler water on the bay will keep shoreline areas 10 degrees cooler.
Friday Rain (Up North)
The line of showers and storms should be in central PA and far western Maryland by midnight. This will drop south and fade overnight. Most of the day locally will be dry!
Saturday and Sunday may have scattered showers, but should not be a washout.
The National Hurricane Center has identified over 60% chance for a slow moving Low passing off of the coast and spinning up over the next 5 days. This could be a named storm (Arthur). Winds need to be 39 mph or stronger to be named a tropical storm. However a depression with 35 mph can still lead to locally heavy rain and coastal flooding.
The European ECMWF Model has plotting a 70% chance for at least a Tropical Depression forming over the weekend. This does not guarantee it will be a named storm, but cyclonic development.
Why is this important?
The track of whatever forms will move Northeast and stay offshore. But the winds will wrap back onshore and could be strong.
The result: Coastal Flooding/Erosion and cooler winds early next week.
WW3 Wave Model Animation
Watch the slow development this weekend then move north. The winds will increase off of the Mid Atlantic coast Monday through Wednesday.
Coastal Winds Next Tuesday
Impact On Our Weather….
The wind increase form the east and northeast will take a bite out of our expected warm up. So instead of mid 70s, we could end up back in the 60s next week across central Maryland and surrounding region.
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When is the typical last freeze or frost?
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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