Saturday May 16 2020
A cold front is moving through the region, but not a lot of rain with it. The clouds and shift in wind should keep temperatures today in the mid 70s to near 80ºF. But there is a lot of action on the weather map that is expected to merge forces to bring us extended rain next week.
Low Pressure east of Miami may get named subtropical storm Arthur this weekend. New model forecast plots bring it closer to the coast, but it will be the residual effects that feed into a stalled pattern over us most of next week.
Morning Weather Map
- The cold front should stall and help focus the other systems over our region.
- Low Pressure east of Miami may develop into a formal tropical system this weekend. This will roll up the coast, and may be close enough to clip the Carolinas. It is still expected to pass east of Maryland and Delmarva.
- Low Pressure in southeast Texas dumped 5 inches of rain on Houston that led to flooding last night. This will feed moisture along the front that will bring us more rain next week.
There is a 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance for development and naming this storm Arthur this weekend.
HWRF Model Forecast Animation
This shows the Low getting close to Cape Hatteras, NC… Then moving east.
Low Pressure plotted by the European Model is similar to the HWRF Model above. This brings this closer to Cape Hatteras, then moving east into the Atlantic.
GFS Model: Monday Afternoon
The GFS Model keeps this closer to the coast and brings it south of Long Island. If this was to happen, the water along the path would be cooler. That would limit development, but still bring rough waves and high winds along the coast.
But lingering rain with an upper level pattern is likely to get stuck over us during most of the week.
I am showing the GFS Model to see this closer track, but especially the heavier rain lingering behind it.
Cooler weather next week. The specifics will depend on the wind direction and rainfall. Strong late. May sun can compensate for cloud cover. The impact of that upper level low the gets stalled will determine that.
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