Saturday May 16 2020
The National Hurricane Center has officially designated that Low Pressure off of the Florida coast as Tropical Depression One. Winds are 35 mph and it is moving to the North-Northeast at 13 mph. This is the last step before being officially named a Tropical Storm, which seems inevitable this weekend.
Tropical Storm Watch:
It is likely that that the storm will be upgraded and named Tropical Storm Arthur as it moves up the east coast. A Watch has been issued up to Duck, NC as this could clip North Carolina. What is in question is the track after either out to sea or up the coast. Either way this will impact Maryland and the Mid Atlantic.
Evening Visible Satellite: Tropical Depression One
Visible Satellite Loop
The circulation is broad, which means this will be developing slowly. But it is over warm water and will be intensifying.
T.D. One Stats
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Forecast Model Tracks
The GEFS Model Ensemble
If this impacts the Mid Atlantic, it will be Monday evening to Wednesday.
This product shows a variety of solutions, with the two main thoughts having this loop back toward the New Jersey or Mid Atlantic coasts by Tuesday or Wednesday.
I will show more solutions below, but it is possible that the core Low does not retrograde but get moisture absorbed by the upper Low we have been expecting to stall over the Mid Atlantic next week.
GFS Forecast Animation: Tropical Depression One
This model tracks the Low far west, over eastern North Carolina late Monday. While the Low here is not shown to double back on to the coast, the moisture does get pulled west into the system heading for the Mid Atlantic.
How Close to Ocean City, Maryland?
The GFS Model brings the storm center within 100 miles of the Maryland/Delmarva coast.
The European ECMWF Model takes the storm center on a curve to farther east out to sea.
This is the most interesting as it brings the Low the closest to Ocean City. This is one of the solutions that loops off of the coast and retrogrades west onshore late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Ocean Waves Forecast
High Waves and Rip Currents
Now that beaches are open and schools along with many businesses are not, there may be more people wanted to head to the shore. Regardless of how close or far (future Arthur) tracks, the wave impact will be far reaching. Rip currents are a sure thing. The strong winds from this east will last a few days and feed into the other storm system we expect to bring us rain most of next week.
National Hurricane Center Forecast
The official forecast cone brings the storm past OBX, then curving out to sea. The closest approach to Maryland would be Monday afternoon/evening. The ‘cone of uncertainty’ leaves a wider margin.
I’ve seen the models trend west in the last two days, so the closer approach to the coast needs to be considered.
Tropical Storm Force Winds
The strongest winds should be Monday evening and at night. As of the first forecast, the chance for TS winds on Delmarva are under 20%.
How Much Rain?
It is too early to call that since the forecast tracks are so widespread and we have another storm system to dominate inland areas next week.
It is likely we get into flood mode with excessive rainfall on soggy soil.
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