Sunday May 17 2020
Tropical Storm Arthur was named last night just east of the Florida coast. The winds are 40 mph, making this a minimum storm, but it is expected to intensity today before hitting North Carolina Monday morning. Here is a look at the tropical conditions, plus our local weather below.
Tropical Storm Arthur
Satellite Loop (close)
Stats From NHC
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 77.4W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Tropical Storm Warning
- Surf City to Duck NC
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
Satellite Loop (wide)
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Maps
The European Model shows a 90% chance this crossed the tip of North Carolina. It also has a 50% chance this passes just off the coast of Ocean City, Maryland.
There are still some models that show Arthur curving east, then retrograded back west on to the Mid Atlantic coast. Regardless of the core Low doing that, I see the moisture feeding into rain for us.
The GEFS Model shows a move out to the Atlantic and a wider curve.
GFS Forecast Animation
Sunday through Wednesday morning.
Tropical Storm Arthur Intensity
The winds are expected top top out between 50 knots and 60 knots. That translates to over 55 mph.
Closest Pass: Monday Evening
Ocean Wind Forecast
The Maryland Weather impact here will be most directly felt on the coast. Here is the close passage of the Low and wind expectations. A Northeast wind Monday evening will be 30 mph with Tropical Storm force gusts over 40 mph.
The core Low should move off of the coast, but the wind field will be expanding and keep the 25 to 35 mph winds on the coast. This may not sound like much, but it will stir up rip currents, beach erosion, and enhance the rain for the inland weather system coming from the west.
Sunday Morning: Maryland Weather Map
This is not a large storm, but it will remain a force with high waves and strong winds affecting the Maryland weather and Delmarva coast much of the week.
- East winds will keep temps cooler in the 60s for the next few days.
- Slow moving storm in the MidWest today will reach us and stall mid week.
- TS Arthur should cross North Carolina, then head out to sea. But it will linger with moisture fed back into that storm for us.
Maryland Weather Sunday Morning
Morning Doppler Radar
The old front is making a return from the south. This has developed light rain showers across central Maryland. Moderate rain bands in the mountains west of Frederick will pass northeast into southern PA.
GFS Forecast: TS Arthur and MidWest Storm
Monday through Friday
A close look at the core Low for TS Arthur shows it turning out to the ocean, but pulling back and enhancing the inland storm affecting the Mid Atlantic.
The risk of ray almost each day, along with easterly winds should keep our temps in the lower 60s in the middle of next week.
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