Tuesday June 2 2020
As if we didn’t have enough going on, the weather is going to make some headlines. A few rain showers have reached the region this morning, but much of the day will be dry. Then scattered storms will develop towards this evening. But tomorrow we crank the heat with temps up to the 90s and bring in the risk for severe storms.
The tropics are getting active, as Tropical Depression Three has winds of 35 mph this morning with a path into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to be formally named Tropical Storm Cristobal today when winds exceed 40 mph. That will track north to the US and could eventually bring rain to our region.
Showers this morning should move out around noon.
The next round may develop this evening.
Severe Storm Risk
Storms will bring damaging winds, large hail, dangerous lightning, flash flooding, and isolate tornadoes.
The building heat will play a role with a disturbance arriving late in the day. But our best chance for severe storms will be at night.
Tracking and Timing Storms
The best chance for the worst weather will be after sunset. Timing is KEY! If this arrives earlier, more heat will increase the intensity. A few hours can make a big difference, so check back for more detailed updates.
Climate Report Today
See the Weather Observations and Climate Report for more info about:
📋 Observations yesterday
🌡 Climate Today
🗺 Weather Map
☀️ Sunrise and Sunset Times
🌙 Moon Phase
Tracking The Tropics
Tropical Depression Three has winds of 35 mph. As soon as winds reach 40 mph, it will get named Tropical Storm Cristobal.
The National Hurricane Center plot goes out 5 days. This shows a nearly stalled storm gradually getting picked up and shaved north into the central Gulf of Mexica by the weekend.
There is a lot of uncertainty with this. The longer it sits over warm water, there is always a chance this undergoes rapid development beyond model predictions.
Forecast Models Intensity
Forecast Model Tracks
Long Range Potential: ‘TS Cristobal’
This animation is from the GFS Model. I want to point out that it is unlikely this will verify completely. But this is one potential for the storm to track north and intact the US. Any change in intensity and timing will magnify the change in track and impact next week.
It is worth watching for two this evolves and tracks to link up with Mid Latitude systems.
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