Thursday Evening July 9 2020
Tropical Storm Fay has officially formed today. The winds are a minimal 40 mph and it is nor well organized. The heaviest rain is well Northeast of the center of circulation. That will change overnight as the winds should pull that heavy rain on to Delmarva bringing Ocean City and the Delaware beaches a few inches of rain.
This is behave like a strong Nor’easter, mostly in the morning. It will be stormy at the beaches. This is a small storm, so parts of our region inland may hardly notice much of a difference.
This view is a 3 hour span up through sunset. The bright clouds show the heavy rain to the northeast of the center.
The National Hurricane Center has identified the Low at 8 PM about 70 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. They have chosen the follow a track a little farther east, but the models I will show in comparison still bring the center of the storm onshore near Ocean City. The only reason that matters will be how far inland the rain will reach.
LOCATION...36.0N 74.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
NHC Track and Tropical Storm Warning
The eastern track from NHC is why they start the Tropical Storm Warning in Cape May, NJ. The models below suggest it may be a little west.
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound
Model Storm Tracks
HWRF has the Low in southern Delaware at 11 AM Friday.
Other Model Forecast Plots
Wind Comparison —> slider
GFS and NAM are similar. The European ECMWF is a little slower.