Thursday Afternoon July 9 2020
Is it Tropical Storm Fay? Not yet. The National Hurricane Center has the odds up 90% for development in the next 24 hours. It has to happen quickly because it is running out of room in the water. Tropical systems need warm water to feed off of, but can still create tropical conditions when the center remains near the coast, but inland.
The broad circulation is over the North Carolina Outer Banks (OBX) this afternoon. If this fully develops or not, the track is expect to run north, not out to sea. This will take it east of Virginia Beach then over or inland of Ocean City Friday morning with tropical storm conditions.
The track up through Delmarva may have an interesting effect on the Chesapeake Bay.
Satellite Loop Close Up
It is not well organized but there is a cluster of heavy rain off to the northeast of the center.
While note an official tropical storm yet, the tropical models are treating the Low with a track just inland form the coast. However, there are a few outliers on the beach. The location will make the determination of how strong this can get (minimal tropical strength likely), and how far inland the rain reaches.
The NAM 3 Km brings in the first wave of showers to Ocean City, MD as early as 6 PM. By 10 PM, the first moderate to heavy rain bands should arrive.
- The wave model here shows a track of the Low right along Chincoteague and Assateague.
- The strongest winds and highest waves may be right at sunrise in Ocean City and Delaware. A steady flow forecast from the east 30 to 40 knots is on the edge of tropical storm intensity. Waves may reach 10 Ft and rip currents lingering through Sunday.
- Chesapeake Bay winds 15 to 30 mph ‘from the north‘ will drain the water out. Lower water levels are likely in the morning.
Radar Simulation —> slider
Rainfall rates with tropical systems can be very heavy, but this will be quick. Parts of Delmarva can get 2 to 4 inches. Up to 1 inch along western parts of the Chesapeake Bay, mainly in the morning.
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