July 20 2020
This is the second day in a row with temperatures reaching 100ºF. Many would welcome a thunderstorm to relieve the heat and humidity, but only a lucky few will get it. Despite the extreme conditions, the atmosphere is mostly stable.
Check out the temperatures this afternoon. You can see some 80s where storms have cooled things down, but those spots are few and far between.
There is one weakness in the atmosphere that has flared up this afternoon. But only long this line is the best chance to get some action, and the time window is pretty small.
Here is a look at the satellite loop showing the limits cloud development today. This is about 3 hours through 4:36 PM
Here is the same time frame showing the storm development on radar. There is a disturbance in the mountains, but the west winds rips it apart downscoping to the east. But one other lucky cluster on the west side of Washington DC.
Doppler Radar Snapshot at 5 PM
This is the best nowcast indicator. The storms are a little north of the model plots below. Montgomery County and across western and northern Washington DC are in the path.
Note: This may be locally strong, but only provide quick relief.
The best chance for storms will be in metro Washington DC through 7 PM.
This may clip Columbia and Laurel on the north end, then Glen Burnie and Pasadena in AACo still on the edge of a hit or miss.
The main line should travel through PG County and Rt 50 to the east. It’s likely to fade a little near I-97, Annapolis, and the Bay. But some clouds and cooler will help through 8 PM.
These two models do agree on plotting the cluster near Washington, DC but fading as it reaches Anne Arundel County. So Annapolis will be about 50% to get something. Less likely crossing the Bay. Little to no chance this time farther north near Baltimore and southern PA.
NAM 3 Km Model —> slider
Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning
That will be tough to challenge with some of the hottest already set on those days
July 20 102ºF in 1930 July 21 104ºF in 1930 July 22 106ºF in 2011 July 23 102ºF in 2011+
Climate Report Today
Record Rainfall set in Baltimore at BWI
See the Weather Observations and Climate Report from this morning for more info about:
🌡 Climate data today
🗺 Weather Map
☀️ Sunrise and sunset times
🌙 Moon phase
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