September 25 2020
So, is it going to rain on Friday? That is a question I got form quite a few people getting married locally this weekend. There has been a large number of messages about it. Well, the clouds that have returned to the Mid Atlantic are from former Tropical Storm Beta. But with High Pressure in control, the rain trying to arrive will be tough to track in Maryland.
The forecast models have been split as to the amount of moisture that can reach us, but we also have primary equipment failure: Our local Doppler Radar is broken!
Under normal conditions I try to quell the concerns. But in this case I think it’s best to at least ‘plan for some showers’, not a washout. Just know, we may not be able to track them very well.
Below is a look at the Doppler Radar Out Of Service, and our forecast maps.
Surface Weather At Noon
Visible Satellite Loop Through Noon
Check out the circulation with Beta in Mississippi, at the bottom of this high resolution view.
Regional Composite Radar
Here it appears some of the light rain has reached southern Maryland.
Doppler Radar View
This view is the single site image from Wakefield, VA. The outer edge shows the light rain in southern Maryland.
Doppler Radar Locations
What is displayed in Delaware are likely false returns since it is so far from the radar site. The DOX site over Dover was actually clear for the state.
We can use Dover, but there will be gaps of data west of Baltimore, Washington, and in the mountains.
LWX is our primary local Doppler Radar Site in Serling, VA. The National Weather Service noted a failed in data acquisition on September 20. That was when it was dry and not needed.
Technicians will not arrive until Saturday. According to NWS:
THEY WILL DETERMINE THE FULL SCOPE OF THE FAILURE, AND WORK WITH WFO STERLING ELECTRONICS PROGRAM STAFF IN TAKING SUBSEQUENT MAINTENANCE ACTIONS. ACTION AND DIAGNOSIS INCLUDES REPAIRING THE GEAR BOX AND ASSESSING THE HEALTH OF THE BULL-GEAR.
Forecast: Will it Rain?
This will depend on the strength of High Pressure.
According to the NAM 3 Km: We will have showers Friday afternoon and Saturday. But the GFS looks more sparse.
NAM 3 Km Forecast Maps
GFS Model –> slider
This model shows a smaller chance for rain. However, the initialization was missing the rain in southern Maryland and Virginia in place now. So it’s hard to trust what it shows tomorrow.
NEW: Interactive Rain and Wind Slider
- Use the Orange Button to slide the timeline on your own. Or hit the Play Button at the lower left.
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14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)
We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations. Many of these match up with the spots on our route. Please use this list below are reference. I will include them daily with my articles on the kids.
Maryland Weather Page
I wanted to keep it simple. Just the basics for a quick view at any time.
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Severe Storm Report Photos And Video From Thursday
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My ‘bonus’ daughter made this map of Maryland a few years ago. We brought it back for needed positivity. Now on her pick of tanks, and this cool Maryland T for men or women.
Was Your County Not Included?
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Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
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