Tuesday Evening October 6 2020
The rapid ramp up of Hurricane Delta to Category 4 status today is not the only surprise. With winds now at 145 mph, the satellite image still does not display and eye in the center. This is a tightly wrapped storm, and still rather small. The hurricane force winds reach 30 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds reach 105 miles.
The problem is that the path takes this almost directly over Cozumel and Cancun, Mexico. The storm surge potential there is 9 to 13 feet, along with up to 12 inches of rain! There are many US tourists vacationing that could not get out in time, and this will be there before sunrise.
I have been looking, and there is no working radar in the area. The next target will be on Louisiana on Friday evening.
This update includes a look at the forecast landfall maps close up, and how the rain may reach our region in the Mid Atlantic US by Sunday.
Hurricane Delta Tuesday Evening
National Hurricane Center Update
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
This sandwich mode includes the True Color view in daylight, with enhanced cloud tops colored in. These colors are brighter in the dark hours.
Still, no eye to be seen.
Computer Model Forecast Plots
The consensus is along the middle of the Louisiana coast, this is to the west of New Orleans, but may still carry the max impact with the stronger side to the east.
Forecast Maps/Landfall Close Ups —> slider
National Hurricane Center Forecast And Advisories
Warnings and Watches
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico GFS Model Forecast Animation Notice the rain arriving in our region Sunday morning, and possibly lasting into Monday. It is too early to say how much. This track would NOT bring surge or coastal flooding risk to our region. That will be absorbed by the Gulf Landfall.
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