Friday November 6 2020

In normal times this would be a crazy story, but it is 2020 so take this for what it is.  Last week Tropical Storm Eta was named and within 36 hours reached Category 4 intensity with 150 mph winds.  Whew! It then made landfall on Nicaragua dumping FEET of rain, but quickly faded to a Tropical Depression over the mountains as it crossed Honduras.

Eta has maintained its Tropical Depression integrity, so it never really died. Perhaps my ‘Zombie’ label could be challenged.

It is now back out over the Caribbean and poised to become a Tropical Storm again en route to Cuba, south Florida, and the Gulf.  Some models suggest it could become a hurricane again. Regardless, it could also send heavy rain our way next week.

Eta Storm Path History And Projection

November 6 Tropical Storm Eta



Eta Satellite

As of the time of this post, Eta was still a tropical depression, but expected to regain Tropical Storm status (wind over 9 mph)any time.

It may not look impressive here as upper level winds present sheer, but  the low level circulation is organizing with warm water to provide the energy now.

Eta Tropical Satellite November 6 2020


National Hurricane Center Outlook/Forecast

As of the morning update, winds were 35 mph and it was moving the North-Northeast at 7 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings were posted for Cuba.

Look closely and tilt your head to the right. Doesn’t this look like a big question mark?

November 6 Tropical Strom Eta Forecast National Hurricane Center


Forecast Animation

The crazy thing is that the GFS Model saw this last week, just like it showed us Zeta impacting us a week away. I have been hesitant to share that kind of long range material,  but it might be worth ding so in the future.

Here is how it portrays Eta to clip southern Florida and get into the Gulf of Mexico. It is not going to directly reach us, but the flow of moisture appears to get caught up in the upper level flow and feed the next cold front.

Forecast Eta rainNovember 6 2020



Rain Snapshot Next Wednesday 

Here is a close up of the GFS Model for Next Wednesday Afternoon.

November 6 rain from Eta Next Wednesday GFS



This is not alone. Compare to the European ECMWF Model. Here we see a similar result but a little slower/later


November 6 rain from Eta Next Wednesday ECMWF




My Take

At this point, it is still a long range forecast. It’s worth watching not only the track, but intensity of Eta. If this does over-achieve AGAIN and become a hurricane, it would be a more potent force.

This is also another test for:

  • The validity of the GFS long range forecasting skill
  • Tropical Storm Tracks and Atmospheric Memory to be applied to my Winter Outlook

Stay tuned


Winter Outlook Series

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Early Winter October

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