Thursday January 21 2021
After a chilly start, this afternoon will be milder, then a colder push over the weekend. That sets the stage for our next winter event early next week. Since my report last night, the latest round of computer guidance has more agreement for snow and ice late Monday into Tuesday. A second event later in the week is still worth watching as well.
Morning Surface Map
A very chilly start with many in the 20s west of the Bay and north of Rt. 50.
These numbers are near or slightly above average.
Friday Afternoon: A little warmer.
Forecast Snapshot: Central Maryland
While the weekend turns colder again, it will be dry. The next event arrives later on Monday
Looking Ahead: Winter Event Early Next Week
Last night I wrote about this event with two of the three main models bringing us snow and ice. Now, the GFS that was holding out has joined the party, just later in time frame.
European ECMWF Model
Earliest arrival on Monday afternoon/evening! A start with snow will be followed by an extended period of ice into Tuesday.
Canadian GEM Model
This solution brings the snow in overnight Monday, but also follows with icing during the day on Tuesday.
Our American model has joined the party after prior runs didn’t show much. Here we see a similar solution to the Canadian with a start of snow overnight then followed by icing during the day on Tuesday.
GFS Model Animation
If this stops animating, please hit refresh.
The GFS shows agreement with the first storm. The second storm looks stronger, colder, and farther north, but still just south of our main metro areas. I will still keep attention on this event as outlooks will continue to adjusted in the closer time frame.
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