Friday Evening February 12 2021
As I mentioned in my last report, I expected the ice concerns in more of Maryland beyond the implied advisories. Since then, The National Weather Service has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for counties along the northern Maryland border westward to the mountains. This coastal will not reach Garrett County with the same impact.
I drove through Baltimore around the beltway, and into Carroll County this afternoon. It was beautiful as a thick coating of snow remains on the trees. When we add a little ice to that, it might get ugly this weekend.
Southern Pennsylvania: I believe you still should be on guard, but your local NWS Office in State College has not hopped on board. Light icing at least expected there.
When: Begins in the morning from south to north. Some icing during the day, but the biggest impact will be Saturday evening and overnight. This arrives sooner, and should end sooner on Sunday morning.
Winter Weather Advisory Expanded
Added to the prior advisory area are northern Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Washington, and Allegany Counties in Maryland along the PA boarder.
About The Ice Storm Warning
Southern Maryland (Charles and St. Mary’s) and SE Virginia: These are the same areas that got a few inches of snow last night, now set to get the heaviest ice this weekend. This region can get 0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice accumulation.
Snow From Part 2 last night into this morning.
This snow exceeded expectations with 4 inches or more in St. Mary’s County. The storm track is set up to impact the same locations again.
How Much Ice? Compare Computer Model Forecasts
- Yes, this is lower than the European Model showed two days ago.
- Treat this the same.
- *Recent trend has shown models pull back on precipitation, the ramp back up at the last moment.
- All it takes is 0.10” to 0.25” to begin causing weigh issues on trees and power lines. When over 0.25” it id more like to lead to damage.
NAM 3 Km: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast
GFS: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast
Canadian: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast
European: Freezing Rain Ice Forecast
When will this begin?
Saturday morning. It looks light, but as we saw with accidents in Texas yesterday, all it takes is a small glaze to be a big problem. I do NOT want to exaggerate this, but definitely treat this with caution.
10 AM Saturday
Here the NAM 3 Km model shows sleet moving past Washington and Annapolis and into Baltimore.
Freezing rain (pink) expands through Virginia.
4 PM Saturday
Sleet expands through northern Maryland and Southern PA.
Freezing rain reaches to near Rt 50 along Washington and Annapolis.
Animation During This Time Frame
Atmospheric Memory: We see yes ANOTHER Low Pressure passing by the coast between Virginia Beach and Ocean City.
Animation Saturday Evening and Ending Sunday Morning at 7 AM
7 AM Sunday Snapshot
This event should be ending before noon.
7 AM Sunday Temperatures
Temperatures may be near or below freezing for a wide area, including across Delmarva.
- This will be at least a moderate ice event.
- Timing will begin Saturday morning from south to north.
- Heaviest ice will be over the same areas that got snow last night into this morning.
- Northern Counties not in an advisory now: Pay attention! Recent systems have verified north and I think this will impact you as well.
- This should end during Sunday morning after sunrise.
- Expect More Advisories or Warnings to be issued north of what has been shown on the map above.
Grade My Forecast
The surface air will be cold enough, while warmer air at cloud level allows for rain. This then falls into a closer layer near the surface.
Sleet: Bounces, since it refreezes on the way down.
Freezing Rain: Looks like rain, turns to ice on contact. This is actually more dangerous to weigh down trees and power lines.
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