Tuesday March 9 2021
I want you to join in and play a simple game with the weather. Many years ago, the first app I developed was a game on Facebook called Weather Guesser. It was a simple forecast the high temperature for Baltimore at BWI. The was a scoring system which included how wide of a range you picked. Then you could see how you ranked agains others and try to beat The National Weather Service.
Below is a simplified version.
Today was the first day of the year that Baltimore reached the 70s. Just before 4 PM, BWI reported 71ºF, which is 20 degrees above average.
Do you recall me mentioning for the past week that we often warm up more than computer models suggest? This 71ºF mark was above the model forecast of 65ºF, which I don’t think many are complaining about. If this was mid winter and we were off by 6 degrees in a storm, the word BUST would be blasted everywhere.
This is the Model Forecast Map I showed this morning….
Look closely and you can see BWI was showing 65ºF
I want you to be the Weather Guesser
Can you accurately call the High Temperature at BWI for Thursday. That is supposed to be our warmest day of the week.
(Remember this is our False Spring. It will turn colder this weekend and we still may have snow by next week).
Here are some computer model forecast elements. Use these and then log your temperature in the Poll below.
I will show the results with the actual high temperature after the climate report is final.
Thursday Surface Weather
A large ridge of High Pressure will be off of the Southeast US coast. The clockwise flow around this will bring us warm winds from the South to Southwest.
The average wind will be from the south to southwest at 10 mph.
The highest gusts may be 15 to 20 mph.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Overall, a really nice day!
High Temperature: Guidance Guidance
Here are three models in close agreement —> slider
Are they right? Or, will we continue the trend to end up warmer? If so, how warm?
You make the call.
Voting Open Until 9 PM Wednesday Night
What will the High Temperature be at Baltimore's BWI on Thursday March 11, 2021?
- 76ºF (18%, 185 Votes)
- 74ºF (17%, 174 Votes)
- 75ºF (13%, 136 Votes)
- 77ºF (11%, 113 Votes)
- 78ºF (11%, 112 Votes)
- 73ºF (10%, 102 Votes)
- 80ºF or Higher (6%, 58 Votes)
- 72ºF (6%, 56 Votes)
- 79ºF (5%, 47 Votes)
- 70ºF (1%, 11 Votes)
- 71ºF (1%, 9 Votes)
- 60s (cooler) (1%, 6 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,009
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