September 21 Thursday Mid Day Update
The weather system I have been reporting on all week got an upgrade this morning. The National Hurricane Center identified this circulation of of the Florida Coast as AL99. This ‘invest’ is trough with a cluster of thunderstorms with potential to develop into a tropical or subtropical Low. At this time the odds have increased to 50% in the next two days. By that point this system will be moving very close or onshore in the Mid Atlantic region of the United States.
The broad circulation can be seen here. It iOS not well organized, but is trying. Regardless of if this gets formed or not, it will bring heavy tropical rain and strong winds this weekend.
As of Thursday Mid Day. Some may be upgraded as we get closer.
Friday Evening To Saturday Night
Friday Evening To Saturday Night
Friday to Sunday Morning
Waves Over 10 Feet likely from Hatteras through Ocean City and coastal New Jersey.
Even if this is not a named tropical system, it will behave like a very strong Nor’easter all weekend. The hardest impact will be on Saturday.
I will have an update this afternoon and again tonight.
I want to start off with the European ECMWF Model. This was the holdout, trying to bump it off the coast, as I showed in my report last night. Since then, the model has fallen in line with the rest to bring us the storm and keep it around all weekend.
This looks like a lot more agreement for a Saturday Soaker. There is still a variation in storm position and track, but negligible to the general rainy expectations. The real difference will be in rain totals.
The net result will be rain and gusty winds, mostly from the Northeast, resulting in a chilly day remaining in the 60s.
Since this has been the most consistent model, I am relying on it for the overall expectations.
Friday Night to Monday Morning
This covers our weekend and shows three main things:
With the remaining Low Pressure, a chilly north wind and leftover showers are expected for the Ravens game.
We can see the slow-moving circulation of the Low Pressure entering central Maryland. The winds FROM THE NORTH on the back side of the storm are what will keep us chilly with the rain.
There may be water piling up on the Western Shore of the Bay, so look out for Coastal Flood Alerts in addition to Flood Advisories from the rain.
Less windy but chilly from the North.
There will be noticeable winds across the region. Central areas may gust to over 40 mph, with coastal areas possibly reaching over 50 mph.
Rainfall Potential
Considering that the European model had shown the storm as a miss, it is now in line with the GFS model to bring a few inches for most areas.
There will be LESS WEST and MORE EAST
GFS Model
European ECMWF Model
Our Storm Day will be Saturday, but I have to increase our likelihood for it to linger with a chilly day and showers on Sunday. It will be chilly at the Ravens game!
Both afternoons will remain in the 60s. Remember, just last week, we had our record-breaking heat wave! This will be an adjustment.
I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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