Tuesday March 22 2022
Afternoon Report
The current weather pattern has a focus on severe weather and tornado outbreaks across the southern US. A push of warmer air and possibly some thunderstorms will reach us in the Mid Atlantic by Thursday. But the pattern that follows will be another disruption of the Polar Vortex.
I know this term may conjure up images from The Day After Tomorrow, but it is a legitimate weather pattern that I wanted to show you.
While we can watch the evolution in the maps below, I need to state the obvious: It is late March and a higher sun angle will modify the air mass. If this was January it was truly be an arctic outbreak. But this time it brings morning freezes and yes will keep the risk of snow and wintry mix around.
Tracking The Polar Vortex (PV) Disruption
Jet Stream Analysis
Thursday Evening
The PV will be locked up near the North Pole, where it belongs.
We we have a warm surge, and possible T’storms from the current weather system, but this will be followed by the initial deep trough with colder air.
Saturday Afternoon
The PV gets dislodged and rides into central Canada on the western edge of Hudson Bay. A strong Upper Level Low will be in central PA. This is following a ‘Clipper’ that may bring some rain or mixed snow showers, with snow in the mountains.
This opens up the door for the PV to dive farther south behind it…
Jet Stream Animation
Thursday Evening To Monday Morning
Here we can see the full movement of the PV, which reaches New England by Monday morning. It replaces the position of the initial upper level Low as it moves out east. It almost appears as if it backed up, which is known as a discontinuous retrogression. This is more common in a blocking pattern.
Monday Morning
The PV located in New England is the circulation that originated around the North Pole… It will modify in lower latitudes with March sun. If this was January, we could be talking about a true arctic outbreak and widespread snow.
Back To The Weekend
Saturday Afternoon Jet Steam
Here is a closer look at the Upper Level Low (not the PV).
Saturday Surface Weather
This deep trough will bring a wintry feel to the air along with snow in the mountains. We will have some initial rain, but possibly mixed with snow.
Sunday Morning
This is the GFS Model forecast showing the freezing line just west of metro Baltimore. I know this may not seem like a big deal for now, but there is a lot, but this may trend lower as we get closer. The outlook is heavily weighted with normal climate data/expectations.
Will There Be Snow?
I already gave in to Spring and The Flip Flop Army. Plus my son’s baseball season just began and I want to be comfortable coaching practices. So I am not rooting on snow, but the reality is that it may be possible.
At this stage it is unlikely that we get stickage unless there is a special event and it beings at night. But watch the trend, there maybe some wintry weather developing on the edge of that deep trough… especially when it retreats next week.
It’s worth watching. We know how long range model plots have NOT worked out week all winter… But check this out.
GFS Model:
Surface Weather Saturday Afternoon to Wednesday Afternoon
NOAA OUTLOOK
This is the 6 to 10 day focus through the end of March
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF THUNDERSNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
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