Monday December 21 2020
We have been talking about the Christmas arctic front almost since the last storm ended. I want to try a different perspective now for snow on Christmas.
I know the technical definition of a White Christmas is having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. Even if it’s old snow. But many want to see snow falling. The focus so far has mostly been on the front itself. But here I will show you here that there may actually be another chance for snow to fall on Friday while we are in the deep freeze. Also, check out the temps and wind chill forecast maps at the bottom. WOW!
The Arctic Front: Timing?
One thing for sure is that the computer modeling has NOT been reliable. The two main models (among others) that I have shown here has been the GFS (American) and the ECMWF (European). Both still show the arctic front, but the timing has been spread as much as a full day apart.
Latest GFS Model Simulation —> slider
This still shows the front changing rain to mix and snow in central Maryland on Christmas Eve between 7 PM and 10 PM.
Arctic air can be very unstable when it first arrives. The leading edge of the new air mass can have a lot of little circulations. These pass over the Great Lakes and develop snow showers that can pass over the mountains. That is what I see on Friday.
The peak ‘spin’ can be tracked at the 500mb level, roughly 18,000 t above the ground. If we identify the Vort Max to pass over central Maryland or south, then the flurries and snow showers become more likely even in metro areas.
Vorticity Tracking Timeline –> slider
I’ve highlighted one vort max into Friday afternoon, that spins off another passing over central Maryland (4 PM).
Notice the upper level flow could continue to produce snow showers until Saturday morning.
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14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)
We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.
Maryland Weather Page
I wanted to keep it simple. Just the basics for a quick view at any time.
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