Recap Of February 11 Snow And Grade My Forecast

Thursday February 11 2021

I am so happy to report that this storm ending this morning produced snow for many areas that have missed out on recent events. I am also happy since it worked out for about 90% of my call. It was even sweeter paying close attention to the north Bay coastal area and they hit their target. No BUST there!

The “GRADE MY FORECAST ” poll is below.

 

I have many local snow maps and spotter lists to show you. Snow covers most of our region, and I wanted to start with this one map (but it might be hard to see).

 

McHenry in western Maryland has 26” of snow on the ground, according to Kristin Skewis. 

In Dover, DE my mother in-law measured 6” of new snow today as one of the top spots.

 

 

Annapolis

The state capital received just under 2 inches, but it was enough to change the landscape and break the snow drought bubble

 

Even just an inch or so of snow is enough to make Annapolis look spectacular! #FITF ❄️ ❤️ https://t.co/bXp4zc4AhM

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) February 11, 2021

 

 

This was originally expected to be a two part event, but this first part verified my original call and the follow up maps. I will show all below.

The second part is passing through southern Delmarva tonight, so I will update that region when it is complete. We have a busy pattern ahead, so I wanted to post this report so we can get focused on the ice storm on the way.

 

Snow Spotter Map (NWS Sterling Office)

 

 

ADDED PART 2 Additional Snow Friday Morning

St. Mary’s Co got over 4 inches of snow

 

My Original Forecast

Wed through Friday (The date in the title should be Feb 10 to Feb 12)

 

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories

 

My Snow Forecast(s)

I made a few adjustments as new info showed some intensification.

Slider showing all off my maps

Final Call —-> prior calls

 

Official Reporting Stations

BWI: 2.6 inches

• (My forecast was 2 to 4)

 

Washington National: 0.8”

• (My forecast was Coating to 2”)

 

Dulles: 0.5”

• (My forecast was 2 to 4)

 

Morning Results

What went right:

• Timing, stickage, and most accumulations
• Southern Maryland : Starting and ending with snow, but rain in between.

 

What went wrong:

• I went too high with snow in PA.
• A little more snow verified in parts of northern Delmarva
• Right along the line in Washington was wet in the morning

 

 

Please Grade My Forecast

Open Until 8 Pm Friday

Consider the information I shared as well as the final result.

See the county snow maps and spotter lists below for reference

 

 

 

 

Snow Reports

I included my forecast for each region to compare.

Northeast Maryland

Harford and Cecil Counties

My Forecast: 2 to 4 inches; up to 6″ north 

 

 

…Harford County…

  Norrisville 1 WSW       5.3   625 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Abingdon 1 SE           4.5   624 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Bel Air 2 W             4.0   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Forest Hill 3 SW        4.0   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Fallston 2 ESE          4.0   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Kingsville 3 NNE        4.0   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Bel Air 2 E             3.9  1100 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Forest Hill 1 NNW       3.6   645 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Havre De Grace 4 WNW    3.5  1000 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS             

…Cecil County…

  Fair Hill 1 SW          3.8  1040 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Glen Westover           3.5   713 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Elkton 5 NW             3.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Woodlawn 2 ENE          3.2  1028 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Elkton 1 NNW            3.0   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS   

 

 

Baltimore County and City

My Forecast: 2 to 4 inches; up to 6″ north 

 

…Baltimore County…

  Glyndon 1 WSW           5.0  1153 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Perry Hall 1 NNE        5.0   825 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Long Green 1 SW         5.0   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Towson 1 SW             4.8   830 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Upper Falls 1 NNE       4.7  1145 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Timonium  NE            4.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Kingsville 1 E          4.6   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  White Marsh 2 ESE       4.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Brooklandville          4.5   847 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Glyndon 1 SW            4.5   807 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Fullerton 1 N           4.2   807 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Pimlico 1 NW            4.1   925 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Reisterstown 1 ESE      4.0   630 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Long Green 2 NW         4.0   550 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Perry Hall              4.0   816 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Cockeysville 2 WNW      4.0   634 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Catonsville 1 NW        3.8   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Catonsville 1 SSE       3.8   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  White Marsh 2 E         3.6   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Parkton 1 W             3.3  1030 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Halethorpe  SW          3.3   815 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Jacksonville 2 NE       3.3   858 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Bentley Springs 1 E     3.2   600 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Edgemere  ESE           3.0   656 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter    

 

..Baltimore City…

  Pikesville 2 SE         5.1  1030 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Mount Washington 1 N    5.0   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Park Heights 2 NNW      5.0   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Pimlico  SE             4.9   620 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Hamilton  NE            4.7   600 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Arlington 1 NNW         4.1   806 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Towson 1 SSE            4.0   715 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Arlington 2 ESE         3.4   525 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Morrell Park 1 W        2.8   835 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter

 

 

Frederick and Carroll Counties

My Forecast: 2 to 4 inches; up to 6″ north 

 

…Frederick County…

  Frederick               5.5   833 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Mount Pleasant 3 SSW    4.8   613 AM  2/11  Public                 

  New Market 3 NNW        4.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  New Market  N           4.5   705 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Thurmont 3 N            4.4   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Adamstown 1 ESE         4.0  1000 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Bloomfield 2 WSW        4.0   945 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  New Market 2 NW         4.0   830 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Frederick 1 SW          3.9   730 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Point of Rocks 1 NE     3.9   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Union Bridge 7 SSW      3.8   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Rosemont 1 WSW          3.8  1020 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Frederick 4 SSW         3.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Thurmont 1 SSE          3.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Sabillasville 2 SSE     3.5  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Woodsboro 3 E           3.0   828 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Emmitsburg 2 SE         2.0   625 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer

 

…Carroll County…

  Sykesville              5.2   758 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Eldersburg              5.1   728 AM  2/11  Broadcast Media        

  Eldersburg 1 E          4.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Mount Airy  SE          4.7   730 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Sykesville 6 NNW        4.5   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Gamber 1 W              4.3   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Westminster 3 SSW       3.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS     

         

Western Maryland:

My Forecast: Mostly 4 to 6”+

 

 

…Garrett County…

  Frostburg 3 WNW         7.8   810 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Mountain Lake Park      7.3   600 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Warnocks 4 NW           7.0   700 AM  2/11  HADS                   

  McHenry 5 SSE           7.0   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Mc Henry 4 SW           6.0   700 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer         

  Deer Park 6 NE          6.0   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  McHenry 1 S             6.0   645 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Bloomington 3 WNW       5.8   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

 

..Allegany County…

  Ridgeley 1 W            6.5   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Cresaptown-Bel Air 1    4.8   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Frostburg               4.8   700 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer         

  Cumberland              4.0   700 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer      

 

…Washington County…

  Long Meadow 1 SSE       4.0   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Boonsboro 3 NNE         3.9   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Hagerstown 1 ENE        3.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Long Meadow 2 W         3.4   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Keedysville 2 SSE       3.4   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Williamsport 3 ENE      3.4   600 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Hagerstown 4 NNW        3.4   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Pecktonville 3 NNW      3.1   711 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Hancock 1 ESE           3.0   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Sharpsburg 5 S          2.8   700 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer         

 

 

Capital Area: Montgomery, Howard, and DC

My Forecast: 2 to 4 inches

 

…Montgomery County…

  Damascus 3 SSW          4.3   900 AM  2/11  Co-Op Observer         

  Damascus 1 S            4.1   658 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Barnesville             4.0   630 AM  2/11  County Emrg Mgmt       

  Clarksburg 2 SE         4.0   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Damascus                4.0   630 AM  2/11  County Emrg Mgmt       

  Poolesville             3.7   600 AM  2/11  County Emrg Mgmt       

  Damascus 1 SE           3.7   700 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Laytonsville 5 NNW      3.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Germantown 5 NNE        2.7   600 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Laytonsville 2 WNW      2.2   742 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Montgomery Village 1    1.8   630 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Rockville 3 NNW         1.8   806 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Gaithersburg 3 NE       1.6   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Germantown 2 WSW        1.6  1030 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Colesville 1 NNW        1.4   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Olney 1 E               1.3   630 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Colesville              1.3   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Olney 1 ENE             1.3   630 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Poolesville  SE         1.1   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  North Potomac 4 N       1.1   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Colesville 2 W          1.1   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Norbeck 1 ESE           1.1   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Washington Grove 1 N    1.1   853 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Clarksburg 1 SSE        0.8  1200 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  White Oak 1 N           0.8   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Silver Spring 6 NNE     0.8   430 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Potomac 1 NNW           0.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Kensington  W           0.7   900 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Takoma Park 1 NNW       0.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Aspen Hill 1 SW         0.3   715 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter      

 

…Howard County…

  Sykesville 2 SSE        5.8   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Granite 1 SSE           5.8   605 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Oella 1 NW              5.0   945 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Marriottsville 2 SSW    5.0   600 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Marriottsville 3 S      4.7   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Historic Ellicott Ci    4.5   907 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Glenelg 2 N             4.5   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Elkridge 1 WNW          4.5  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Sykesville 3 SE         4.5   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Ellicott City 1 SW      4.3   810 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 2 NE           4.0   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 2 N            3.8  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Elkridge 2 W            3.8  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 2 NW           3.5   610 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia                3.3   758 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Simpsonville  E         3.3   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Simpsonville 2 NNW      3.2  1034 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Elkridge                3.1   800 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Columbia 3 ENE          2.8  1115 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Savage 1 ESE            2.6   800 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Savage 1 N              2.5  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Scaggsville 1 ENE       2.5   800 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  North Laurel 2 ESE      2.1   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Laurel 2 N              1.8   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Laurel 1 NNE            1.5   600 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS         

 

 

Anne Arundel

My Forecast: 2” to 4”

Annapolis and south: Coating to 2 inches

 

  Pasadena 1 SE           2.8   700 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Glen Burnie 1 WSW       2.8   830 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Bwi Airport             2.6   700 AM  2/11  Airport                

  Pasadena 3 ESE          2.5   800 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Severn 2 E              2.5   730 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Chelsea Beach  NNE      2.3   730 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Green Haven 1 ESE       2.0   615 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Severn 2 SSW            1.8   911 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Annapolis 1 NNW         1.8  1150 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Chelsea Beach           1.8   715 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Severn  NE              1.8   900 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Odenton 1 N             1.7   730 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Severna Park            1.5  1000 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Annapolis 1 SE          1.5   720 AM  2/11  CoCoRaHS               

  Eastport 1 SSW          1.5   723 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Crownsville 3 SSW       1.3  1015 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Odenton 1 WNW           1.1   653 AM  2/11  Trained Spotter        

  Crofton 1 SSE           1.0   815 AM  2/11  NWS Employee           

  Crofton 2 NNE           0.7   818 AM  2/11  NWS Employee       

 

   

Southern Maryland

My Forecast: Coating to 2 Inches

 

 

ADDED PART 2 Additional Snow Friday Morning

St. Mary’s Co got over 4 inches of snow

 

 

Southern Pennsylvania

My Forecast: 3” to 6” +

I overshot it for some as the heavier snow stayed south this time.

 

…Adams County…

1 W Cashtown                 3.6 in    0845 AM 02/11   CO-OP Observer

Biglerville                  3.2 in    0800 AM 02/11   COOP

Hanover 3.5 WSW              3.0 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Gettysburg 2.5 WNW           2.9 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Gettysburg 0.3 W             2.8 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

York Springs 0.7 SE          2.5 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Abbottstown 2.4 N            2.4 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

 

…York County…

Stewartstown 0.5 S           3.0 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Seven Valleys                2.3 in    0830 AM 02/11   Public

1 S York                     2.0 in    0900 AM 02/11   Trained Spotter

Yorkana 1.4 SE               2.0 in    0800 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

1 S New Salem                2.0 in    0800 AM 02/11   Trained Spotter

Mount Wolf 1.0 SE            2.0 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

York 2.5 NNW                 2.0 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Manchester 3.6 W             1.8 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

 

…Lancaster County…

Safe Harbor                  3.0 in    0800 AM 02/11   COOP

Elizabethtown                2.0 in    0900 AM 02/11   Public

2 NNE Mount Joy              2.0 in    0821 AM 02/11

1 E Lancaster                2.0 in    0800 AM 02/11

2 W Lancaster                2.0 in    0715 AM 02/11   Public

Millersville 1 S             2.0 in    0700 AM 02/11   COOP

Lititz 0.3 WNW               1.8 in    0800 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

Adamstown 2.5 SSE            1.7 in    0700 AM 02/11   COCORAHS

3 NNE Denver                 1.5 in    0715 AM 02/11   Public

 

 

Eastern Shore and Delaware

NWS in Mount Holly did not provide a list of spotters, but generated this map.

I did receive many reports online ranging from 2 to 6 inches.

My Mother In Law (seen at the top) was in Dover and I will NOT argue with her accurate report.